LANGUAGE: ENGLISH

Somalia is located on the eastern coast of the African continent, north of the Equator, between the Gulf of Aden in the north and the Indian Ocean in the east. It is bordered by Djibouti in the north, Ethiopia in the West, and Kenya in the South. There are six federal member states which form modern Somalia: Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Banadir Regional Administration (Mogadishu Municipality), South West State, Jubaland. While Somalia possesses substantial oil resources, it is not an oil-producing nation. In February 2020, a new piece of legislation was passed which allocated shares of future oil revenue to the federal government and local communities. The legislation aims to attract foreign investments into the Somalian oil as well as to foster the development of the sector in general. It is considered by many as a milestone towards the transformation of Somalia into an oil-producing state. However, Puntland refused to recognise the legislation since it was perceived as a threat to the Puntland’s control over the energy sources. The lack of recognition of the legislation by Puntland can potentially result in political tensions amongst the federal member states. 

 

Its history dates back to 9000 BC, it has been inhabited since the Paleolithic Age and many civilizations have flourished in it. Archaeologists have been able to find inscriptions and drawings on the cave gates in northern Somalia. They also found the oldest evidence of the remains of pyramids, cities, and stone walls for the rituals of burial ceremonies in the Horn of Africa, dating back to the beginning of the fourth century BC. All these traces point to an ancient and advanced civilization that was flourishing in the past in the Somalian peninsula; a civilization which maintained wide trade relations with the ancient Egyptians, the Phoenicians, the Babylonians, the Indians, the Chinese, and the Romans through developed commercial ports.  

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Many researchers and scientists believe that Somalia, especially the north of the Horn of Africa, was one day the seat of the Puntland, which thrived in the trade of perfumes, incense, spices, gold, animal furs, woods and more. Offering incense and the myrrh perfume to the gods was considered an important ritual in ancient Egypt where the priests used to offer them daily to the gods. According to scripts written in hieroglyphic, the Egyptians started visiting the Puntland 4500 years ago and continued to do so for a further century. Queen Hatshepsut, Queen of Egypt, (died in 1457 BC) sent a delegation to Puntland on a big ship through the Red Sea laden with gifts and Egyptian goods such as papyrus and flax. received The Delegation was well received by The King of Puntland, the evidence for this was that it returned carrying big loads of gifts and luxuries. Queen Hatshepsut had details of this delegation drawn on the walls of the Deir el-Bahari Temple on the western bank of the Nile at Luxor.  The drawings of that temple remain vivid and continue to preserve their splendour and beauty to a great extent. 

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The strategic and geopolitical position of Somalia, its natural resources and the riches hidden in its depth, made it the object of interest to many powers throughout history. As time passed, Somalia became subject to European colonial competition in the second half of the 19th century until it gained its independence in 1960. Britain granted independence to its colony in northern Somalia and after a few days Italy, also, granted independence to its protectorate and the two former colonies united in an independent state, Somalia. France, meanwhile, held a referendum on its Somalian protectorate (French Somalia) which resulted in the establishment of Djibouti. 

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In the Seventies of the last century, the idea of a “Greater Somalia” started to take shape among Somali nationalists which refers to all the areas inhibited by Somalis in the Horn of Africa, especially, the area of Ogaden which was annexed to Ethiopia in 1945 and the region of southwestern Somalia, annexed by Kenya to its territories in 1963 and it was known as Northern Frontier District (NFD). In 1977, Somalia commenced operations to regain control of the Ogaden in eastern Ethiopia. However, Ethiopia, supported by Kenya, Southern Yemen, Cuba, and the Soviet Union stood by Ethiopia, and was able to withstand the Somali offensive in 1978. 

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Somalia then began to disintegrate into areas controlled by militias or other tribal leaders and other politically organized entities such as Somaliland and “Puntland”. The state was overcome by chaos and suffered a humanitarian disaster due to the complete collapse of the civil system and descended into civil war in 1991, lasting many long years. The Republic of Somaliland (self-styled) in the northwestern part of the Horn of Africa is considered a political entity operating as a de facto sovereign state since 1991 but it is not recognized by any other state or international organization. 

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The international community considers Somaliland to be part of Somalia. Politically, the Somali government cannot extend its sovereignty to most of the Somali lands; its officials and ministers cannot set foot in a strategic and important area such as Somaliland.  Also, the international community still considers the Government as unable to exercise full authority and prefers to deal direct with Somaliland for humanitarian support, international financial aid and other matters.

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Turkey Penetration in the Horn of Africa

What are the incentives that motivated Turkey to head to the East African region, especially Somalia? 

Somalia is fractured internally. The government is weak and unable to access authority effectively. Somaliland enjoys autonomy and self-rule. Elsewhere,  the Somali Youth Movement (al-Shabab),  adopts fundamentalist Salafist Islamic ideology and carries out widespread terrorist attacks in the state and in some neighboring countries causing tension between Somalia and these countries. Additionally, Somalia has been blighted by years of drought and famine. 

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Turkey is a state attempting to define and impose itself on the international order as a regional power in the Middle East and Northern Africa. To do so, it is essential that it generates influence and presence in  strategic and important regions such as the Horn of Africa and the Mediterranean Basin. The Turkish presence in Somalia enables Turkey to create influence over the most important waterways and maritime trade traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Straits and the Mediterranean Sea. Thus, it can protect its ships and secure its trade routes in the Horn area. 

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The source of the Turkish state’s interest in Somalia and in Africa in General is the joint Islamic culture of Turkey and many African countries as well as the strategic and geopolitical position of the continent and the riches hidden in its depths. Turkey perceives the continent as big markets in which it can sell its products to economic benefit. Turkey, through penetrating the African continent, is seeking to affirm its role at the regional and international levels and to prove its significance as a strategic partner especially following repeated failed attempts to join the European Union. 

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Turkish organizations, such as the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) played a big role in delivering humanitarian relief during the civil war in Somalia. Turkish interest in Africa goes back many years when Turkey was looking for an effective regional role in the ‘Dark Continent’. In 1988, Turkey had issued a paper on a new approach toward Africa and gave it the title “the African Policy” which aimed at strengthening diplomatic, economic and cultural relations between Turkey and African countries[1].

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The year 2006 is considered a fundamental shifting point in Turkey’s employment of the religious civilization dimension by hosting an “African Clergy” conference in Istanbul which was attended by representatives from 21 African countries. The Turkish politicians understood that completing a successful policy of openness towards Africa and supporting it, requires the employment of the religious dimension in their strategy for the countries of the continent. 

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In 2008, Istanbul hosted the Turkey-Africa Summit, with participation by 49 African countries, it culminated in strengthening these relations by the African Union naming Turkey as a “strategic partner” for the continent[2]. 

Relations between Somalia and Turkey started to grow and flourish following the first visit by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to Mogadishu in 2011 when he was prime minister. Erdogan was accompanied by a large number of advisors and businessmen. It is noteworthy that Somalia was, during that period, going through a severe drought and famine called “the Drought Crisis”. Erdogan’s visit and his inspection of the areas hit by the drought inspired warm feelings among the Somalis, bolstering their confidence in the Turks as a friendly nation. 

 

The competition between Turkey and the Arab Gulf States

Turkey’s policy in Somalia was not limited to establishing bases but also involved fostering a natural ally in an important country in the Horn of Africa region. Turkish investments and projects in Somalia reached around 100 million dollars in 2015, focussed on trade and economy, under the title “Reconstructing Somalia”. Furthermore, Ankara was able to reach new external markets for Turkish commodities and goods, seeing a significant increase in trade exchange between Ankara and Mogadishu in recent years, with bilateral trading between the two countries reaching 144 million dollars in 2017. This had increased to reach 206 million dollars by 2019 indicating a significant  growth level in trade exchange with Turkey[3]. 

 

Turkey has also started to compete with Arab Gulf states, protecting its influence in Somalia through financial and economic investment to support the weak government as well as by bolstering its military existence, training the army and the security forces in a country largely abandoned to its fate by the international community, because of its chaotic state which overwhelmed it , especially prior to the start of the civil war in 1991. 

 

Turkey, (according to the Anadolu Agency) agreed to pay off the overdue Somalia debts to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) starting from 5th November 2020 by withdrawals from its reserve funds, estimated at 2.4 million shares, to support economic reforms in Somalia. 

 

The amount of Somalia’s IMF debts  doesn’t look a significant number compared with the amounts paid by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in aid and investment in infrastructure, the provision of essential facilities and establishing projects to create sources of income for the residents. Nor they are big relative to the sums paid by Qatar, which is also investing in Somalia; however, the political reward was reaped by Turkey. Why not? now the Turkish language is spoken by many Somalis, including the Army. 

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In February 2017, the UAE signed an agreement with Somaliland for a thirty year franchise contract to build and develop the Port of Berbera overlooking the Gulf of Aden for thirty years at a cost of $442 million dollars. The Port of Hobyo lies in the northern Galmudug State. Formerly well known as a piracy centre it is now earmarked for development as a commercial port. In 2019 it had been reported that Qatar would be financing its development. However, in November 2020 it was reported that the Galmudug minister for Ports and Fisheries had signed an agreement with a UK based consortium, Ocean Terminal (UK, Turkish, Somali ) for development of the port as a PPE project. It is noteworthy that a Turkish company “Favori LLC” is handling the administrative and security affairs of the Aden Adde International Airport in Mogadishu since September 2013 which is the main airport in Somalia following the crisis of the later with the UAE who was managing this airport prior to that.

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Observers say that Ankara’s announcement on paying off the debts of Somalia reveals its desire to show its control over Somalia and its government as if the existence of this government is dependent on Turkish protection. 

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Oil and gas matters: lack of confidence in the Petroleum Law and Somalia/Kenya disputes 

Recent seismic and data analysis has indicated similarities between Oman and Somali geology which indicate the possibility of large offshore oil deposits in northern Somali waters. On 6 February 2020, the Somali President signed into law the Somali Petroleum Law covering all Somali territory including offshore economic zones. Like Libya, Turkey is actively seeking to get the franchise for oil exploration in the Somali waters as the Somali government has approved in 2019 a new oil law which opens up many of the oil fields to foreign companies over an area around 75000 square miles[4]. Many international experts believe that Somalia has more than 2.7 billion oil barrels in its waters[5]. There are also other offshore fields on the borders with Kenya which could create a fuse for conflict between the two countries. Chinese and American companies have equally shown clear interest in the mineral riches in Somalia, especially in extracting oil, as the American company “Range Resources” confirmed that there are oil reserves in the Puntland estimated at 15 billion barrels of crude oil. Turkey is keen to take a strong position in oil and gas exploration and production. However, most interested O & G companies are holding back from committing resources. They have no confidence  that the Somalia Petroleum Law can give them support and protection given that the new law has been rejected by two key States, Puntland and the ‘Republic of Somaliland’..

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The dispute between Somalia and Kenya is on the maritime areas rich with massive amounts of gas and oil reserves. The maritime triangle of more than 100 thousand km2 in the Indian Ocean, represents the axis of the current conflict between two countries that always had relations characterized by volatility. The origin of the dispute between Kenya and Somalia goes back to determining the direction of the borders of the two countries stretch on the Indian Ocean. Kenya implemented its border vision unilaterally in 2005 capitalizing on the collapse of the state in Somalia. In April 2009, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on the maritime border dispute but the Somali parliament cancelled it two years later describing it as undermining the sovereign rights of Somalia. However, this didn’t refrain Kenya from issuing licences for 8 maritime franchises, seven of them are located in the disputed areas, to French, American, and Italian companies in 2012 which provoked the anger of Mogadishu and made it file a claim with the International Court of Justice to settle the dispute between the two countries in August 2014. The circumstances related to the Corona Virus last year led to the court postponing issuing its judgment. 

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Kenya accused Somalia of awarding oil exploration tenders in the disputed area during the economic conference in London to the British company Spectrum Geo on 7th February 2019 despite the fact that the dispute between the two countries over the lands remains unsolved. The British company embarked on the work, authorized by the Somali Government, to collect the seismic data in preparation to explore the oil opposite to the Somali coasts on the Indian Ocean since 2005. Also, Britain, Norway, Turkey, Qatar, and other parities aim at gaining influence in the oil-rich ocean waters in Somalia. 

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A Station to launch spaceships to the moon 

Turkey’s Erdoganian ambition is not limited to the Horn of Africa between the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean only but it also directed its attention to the Moon in the outer space by planning to build a space station in the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu.  The British website Middle East Eye, quoted a Turkish source as saying that Ankara is planning to make a landing on the moon using a homemade hybrid missile to be launched in the orbit in 2023, the centenary of the Republic, through international cooperation[6]. The same source said also that the government is planning to build a site to launch missiles in Somalia, the Turkish security partner since 2011, which hosts the biggest Turkish military training base in the world. The website highlights in a report that Somalia is not a stranger for the fans of the space as France also considered using the country to host a spaceport in the sixties because of its proximity to the equator which renders it more suitable for launching missiles.

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Scenarios of the Future 

There is no doubt that those Turkish aspirations, inspired by the culture of the Topkapi Palace, Sultan Ahmed Mosque and Hagia Sophia in the golden horn in the European Istanbul have many scenarios that are reflected, negatively or positively, on the Horn of Africa before the end of this decade and by the beginning of the thirties of this century.  

First scenario, the humanitarian stances and aid to Somalia during the drought crises and up to the present time, made Turkey win the trust of the Somalis especially after the opening of a network of Turkish schools in Somalia which offers educational opportunities to its students. Offering education scholarships in Turkish universities, is one of the reasons for the Somali students’ interest in learning the Turkish language to guarantee that they win scholarships. Establishing a military base and training the Somali army, which gives Turkey an effective role in the stability of Somalia. But all of this will make Somalia a Turkish state going through a Turkification phase. The Somali officers are receiving training in Turkish language and swear the military oath in Turkish along with their mother tongue, they celebrate their graduation in the training camp like the way the Turkish armed forces celebrate themselves, chanting the traditional anthem of the Turkish Military Academy and commemorate the soldiers who fell in the Gallipoli defensive campaign (Çanakkale) against Britain which is considered as milestone in Turkish history. 

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Second scenario, despite all of the investments and efforts exerted by Turkey in Somalia but the regional powers especially the UAE, perhaps with support from international powers, will not permit the continued growth of Erdogan’s ambition in the Horn of Africa without their interference which will lead to increased regional competition. The UAE will not calm down until it establishes a military base in Somaliland which could lead to an outbreak and exacerbation of the disputes between these two countries. Moreover, it is not easy for Turkey to succeed in cultivating peace with Somalia because of the al-Shabab Al mujahdeen extremist group and the rebel elements against the central government. 

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On the other hand, the Turkish investment in the natural resources and the establishment of military bases in a country that is so important in its region, will make the task of kicking Turkey out from the Somali lands by any local or regional opponent rather difficult. 

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Currently, the popularity of the Turkish drama, food, products and services among the Somalis places Mogadishu between the civilization of the Horn of Africa and the dreams of the Turkish Golden Horn in going through to the outer space from the Puntland. 

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[1] Mehmet Ozkan,”Turkey’s African Experience: From Venture to Normalisation”, Paper produced in the framework of a project entitled “The EU, the US and the International Strategic Dimension of Sub-Saharan Africa: Peace, Security and Development in the Horn of Africa (Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS):Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), August 2016) p.p. 4-8.

 

2  Chigozie Enwere, and Mesut YILMAZ, "Turkey’s Strategic Economic Relations with Africa: Trends and Challenges", Journal of Economics and Political Economy, Volume1, Issue 2, December 2014, pp 221-225.

 

3 Somalia gives Turkey a 'carte blanche' for oil exploration "Middle East Monitor (January 21, 2020)": https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200121-somalia-gives-turkey-carte-blanche-for-oil-exploration/

 

4 Ekpo, Damilola. “What you should know about Somalia’s recent oil exploration offer to Turkey” Africa Ventures (January 23, 2020):https://venturesafrica.com/the-somalia-government-has-invited-turkey-to-explore-for-oil-offshore/

 

5 Kalehsar, Omid Shokri. “Turkey’s focus on Africa: Energy security, political influence, and economic growth” United World (February 17, 2020): https://uwidata.com/8052-turkeys-focus-on-africa-energy-security-political-influence-and-economic-growth/

 

6 https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-space-programme-somalia-base-cost-revealed